ALARMISTS ON ECONOMIC RECESSION IN NIGERIA ARE THE REAL SABOTEURS!

ZION B-BC   NEWSLETTER.(Looking at Nigeria's Political System from a godly Perspective).    

A Publication of the Zion Faith Bible-Believing Church, Kpeyegyi, Abuja Nigeria. [VOL. 5. NO 160. 4th September, 2016.} “…ONLY The Truth, Will Set You   Free! (John.8:32).

ALARMISTS ON ECONOMIC RECESSION IN NIGERIA ARE THE REAL SABOTEURS!

Though the figures reeled out last Wednesday (31st August, 2016), by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in respect of the sharp rise from 16.1 to 17.1%, in unemployment rate, alarming contraction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by 2.06%, within two quarters, the astronomical foreign exchange rate of N423.00 naira to $1 US Dollar, due to technical economic recession, should jolt the economic team of the Change Administration, National Economic Council (NEC), and all stake holders off balance, but it was not sufficient for the Opposition Party detractors to create unnecessary panic in the polity as if the economy was irreparable! NO! It is wrong for any patriotic citizen to paint such a gloomy picture of the Nigerian economy, outside of the official NBS Report, except of course, charlatans who are bereft of any form of economic discipline but dwell on their fantasies to confuse the larger population and disrepute government's meaningful efforts to shore up all available options to repair major damages left behind by past administrations of the People's Democratic Party (PDP)! It is true that Nigerians are quaking under severe inflation caused majorly by the very unacceptable foreign exchange index which has affected all local and international business /commercial transactions negatively, though goods and services are still in abundant supply at "cost inflation" or "cut-throat" prices, to use the local parlance and this situation proves that Nigeria's economy is not in DEPRESSION like what obtains in the Latin-American country of Venezuela where imported groceries were no longer available for consumption and rioting and murder had become the order of the day; (as the clueless opposition PDP, which was clamoring for President Buhari's resignation, would want the world to believe)! Venezuela like Nigeria had depended for too long on the mono -crude oil product revenue and excessive import of exotic goods to the detriment of national agricultural and solid mineral exploration policies, but Venezuela virtually capitalized on importation of foreign foods for all its citizens without any form of local production, unlike Nigeria which was able to fall back to its massive and fertile agricultural lands, in a sudden challenge of recession, to feed its large population!

Economic recession which is usually triggered by several factors includes, but not limited to the following:
1. Absolute dependability on mono-export product, as crude oil (1968-2015), in the case of Nigeria;
2. An import-driven economy which neglects local manufacturing, agriculture and solid mineral exploration and exploitation;
3. High inflation of prices on goods and services; due to high demands and short supplies.
4. Scarcity of essential commodities, shrinking gross domestic product, high foreign exchange rates;
5. Lack of access by industrial and the manufacturing sectors to favourable hard currency deals;
6.  War outbreaks, insurgency or terrorism;
7.  High ratio of unemployment; and
8.  Institutional corruption; etc, (a global trend and challenge of many countries from time immemorial)!
During the Industrial Revolution of the 18th Century and dawn of civilization in Europe, when mechanization and automation took the centre stage in manufacturing and agricultural sectors of the economy, lots of workers had to be laid off as the machines took over their jobs and the unemployment ratio skyrocketed at an alarming rate! There are bound to be social consequences when the enumerated factors are present in any economy, but once there is no communication gap between government and citizens, fast and permanent solutions would prevail. Presently, some key players in the Aviation and Automobile Industries, ( Aero Contractors and Innoson Motors), were reported to have suspended operations due to scarcity of official foreign exchange funds to source raw materials! This development is no doubt very unhealthy for the economy, but it is very glaring that government is tackling the challenge by injecting more funds into the system. For instance, the recovered looted funds totaling N78billion naira and $3billion dollars, though not sufficient, has been pumped into the Treasury Single Account (TSA), to take care some of the essential needs according to priority. In spite of the fact that vandalization of crude oil pipelines in the Niger Delta is unabated, and government loses about 700.000 barrels per day (bpd), to 1.56million bpd in oil revenue, efforts had been geared towards acquiring more revenue as against the 2016 Budget assumption of 2.2million bpd, from the solid mineral sector through recent foreign partnership investments and also, the consistent drive to ensure made-in-Nigeria agricultural products are patronized in order to block capital flights incurred through importation of exotic foods, cosmetics, haberdasheries jewelries etc. through aggressive diversification which had forced a decline in Capital importation! NBS also said that annual inflation reached 17.1% in July from 16.5% in June, which is more than 10- year high, while food inflation rose to 15.8% from 15.3%. The statistics also showed Nigeria attracted just N647.1million dollars of capital, a 76% fall year on year and 9% down from the first quarter. Nigeria's economy was last in recession for less than a year in 1991, NBS data showed, adding that it also experienced a prolonged recession from 1982 until 1984 (when incumbent President assumed power as a military Head of State). "The naira remained low at record low of N423.00 naira per dollar in the black market as dollar shortages curb activities on the official inter-bank market where the currency was offered at rates as weak as N365.25, in August, 2016, before gaining ground after Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN), intervention.”The oil sector contracted by -17.5% year-on-year compared with -1.9% in the first quarter of 2016; and the non-oil sector economy, manufacturing contracted by -3.4% compared with -7.0% in the first quarter of 2016, the report revealed. Just as economic experts believe that all factors that could be responsible for a technical recession, like macro challenges, steep slide in oil prices, production shortages due to vandalism, foreign exchange sourcing issues in an import dependent country and hike in inflation, the negative reading was a foregone conclusion! "Technically, given that Nigeria's GDP has now shown a decline for two consecutive quarters, the economy is in recession although we expect to see signs of recovery as we enter the fourth quarter, there is still a lot of work to do and delays in releasing capital vote will also delay the recovery.”There is also a risk that revenue collection shortfalls may lead to capital expenditure cuts. Our 2016 GDP growth forecast is -1.2% FBNCapital."

The office of the Vice President, which oversees economic policy, said in a statement that it expected a better economic outlook for the second half of 2016, because many of the challenges faced in the first half, either no longer existed or have eased." Government introduced a flexible foreign exchange policy in June, 2016, to enable a single market- determined rate for foreign currency suppliers to exchange their money at such rates so that the depleted foreign reserve would be replenished in a very short time. According to the report, a slump in crude price, Nigeria's main stay has however depressed public finances and the value of naira, causing foreign exchange shortage but crude sales accounted for about 70% of government revenues. However, the Presidency has allayed the fears of Nigerians that the sharp drop in GDP, which had plunged the country into economic recession said to be the worst in 29 years, would not  persist for long adding that PDP lacked the moral right to demand for the resignation of the President who had disclosed  that, "proactive measures to ameliorate Nigerians pains in the last one and a half years following economic retrogression occasioned by the sharp drop in crude oil price and other sundry economic challenges and that the nation, would bounce back from the crisis in no time through perseverance, steadfastness, dedication and integrity. "We are quite aware of the pains and inconveniences that have been the lot of the citizenry in the past one year as we strive to faithfully implement our programmes in fulfillment of our Change Agenda. "We are however, comforted by the real change and progress we have made in fighting corruption and restoring integrity to government; providing security for lives and property; and positioning the government for effectiveness and especially deregulating the oil sector.”We promised Nigerian people positive and progressive change during our campaign, we are not and shall not be deterred from that noble undertaking; but as we have learnt from history, change has never been attained by any nation on a bed of roses but rather through patience, perseverance and steadfastness." President Buhari, had during a one-day visit to Osun State on Friday, 2nd September, 2016, requested for the understanding of all Nigerians while he dealt with the ailing economy.  The quarterly report of statistics released by NBS that inflation and unemployment figures had risen sharply since the advent of the new Administration had neither been denied nor discarded according to the All Progressives Congress (APC), National Publicity Secretary, Mai Mala Buni, who also assured Nigerians that government remained committed to resuscitating the economy in the quickest possible time and in the best interest of the people but appealed for patience and co-operation from all Nigerians.

What are the demands and expectations of the Nigerian people who are always sandwiched between "PHARAOH'S ARMY AND THE RED SEA?"
1. Total ban on all forms of importation except for those related to the Iron/Steel and the Manufacturing Industries.
2. What Nigeria neither manufactured nor produced must not be patronized by the citizens any longer.
3. Made-In-Nigeria products must fill all the shelves of Nigeria's shopping malls and supermarkets.
4. Diversification to agriculture should emphasize aggressive participation by all citizens through small, medium and large scale farming in all three tiers, so that the nation would be food sufficient and also be in a position to export.
5. Import of all manufactured Nigerian finished goods should be made compulsory to all foreign trade partners and investors.
6.  Nigeria's arts, culture, tourism and movies of the Entertainment Industry should be sold to the all peoples and countries of the world who believe in Nigeria's potentials and capabilities as the world's largest black race and most populous nation in black Africa and in no time, our vaults would overflow with the "green notes" and the economy bloom again!
Nigerians are hard working, diligent, courageous, resilient and very dogged people who are ready to support President Buhari to drive away the the PDP vultures, who believed they could still be relevant in the nation's political terrain after their virtual destruction of the economy in 16 years of maladministration! We must all join ranks and proffer sufficient evidence to bring all treasury looters to justice as its written that there would be no rest nor hiding place for the wicked! Amen.

Please look forward to more divine revelation in the next edition of Zion B-BC Newsletter as you share this with friends and remain blessed in the Lord. [For weekly access, to this newsletter, log on to:  facebook.com/zionfaithbible.believingchurch or http://www.zfbbc1.blogspot.com, https://www.google.com/+zionfaithbiblebelievingchurch.

If you have not accepted the Lord Jesus Christ as your personal Lord and Saviour, don’t miss this great opportunity as you pray this prayer: Lord Jesus; I confess that I am a sinner who needs to be saved through the grace of the New Testament of your Blood, shed on the Cross at Calvary; I renounce every sin in my life and accept you as my Lord and Saviour. Please forgive me and write my name in the Book of Life. Amen. If you prayed this prayer, you have been admitted into the family of sons and daughters of God, who are born-again. Congratulations.

I am, yours sincerely, Dr. David B.A. Olufon, Resident Pastor and Editor. 08130669886, 08098194390.  08080243066   g-mail- dvdolufon@gmail.com.